Why Chelsea are Title Favorites

December 18, 2024
by Aaron Mateer

On May 19th, 2024, Manchester City celebrated a first in men's English football history. The Sky Blues won their fourth top flight title in a row. It was a sixth title in seven years for Pep Guardiola. At the time, there was no conceivable end in sight to the dominance from the blue side of Manchester. Fast forward seven months and City have won one match in ten - an unthinkable slump. Guardiola finds himself in unchartered territory.

Slotting In

Meanwhile, in the vacuum created by City's misfortunes, Arne Slot is riding high with Liverpool at the top of the table. The Dutchman inherited a team with real pedigree from Jürgen Klopp. Unlike Manchester United in the wake of Sir Alex Ferguson's departure and Arsenal post-Arsene Wenger, Liverpool appear to have avoided the sag in performance that can accompany the end of an era-defining manager.

Method in the Madness

Then, there's Chelsea.

Since the sale to the BlueCo consortium in 2022, the Blues have toiled in mediocrity. A 12th-placed finish followed by a 6th-placed finish left little to thrill the demanding fanbase. Aside from the scattered approach to transfers, the most indicative decision from the new ownership was the decision to replace Thomas Tuchel with Graham Potter. Just about everyone was left scratching their head. The owners asserted their confidence and invited the fans to "trust the process." Several months later, the owners reversed course and sacked Potter.

In a similar move this past summer, the owners parted ways with top coach Mauricio Pochettino and replaced him with relative newcomer Enzo Maresca. By most accounts Pochettino had done a decent job, but sixth place was not good enough for Chelsea. Maresca, a former disciple of Pep Guardiola, had taken the Championship by storm with Leicester City. But this is Chelsea. Surely it would be like Graham Potter all over again.

Title Contenders?

With Chelsea in second place in the Premier League, four points behind league leaders Liverpool who have played a match less, any doubts about Maresca's appointment have evaporated. By virtue of this position the questions have begun to swirl Maresca in every interview: are Chelsea title contenders? The coach and his players are doing what any rehearsed professional would do: playing it down. The club are not getting carried away with the recent string of successes. However, there may be more reason to believe the title may be returning to Stamford Bridge this season after an eight year drought.

1. December Fixture Congestion

Arne Slot has impressed by tweaking his side ever so slightly to shore up the backline, without compromising the swashbuckling attack that won major titles in the past several years. This is still, however, Slot's first season in the Premier League. Slot's predecessor was perennially perturbed by the scheduling decisions in December. In some cases teams had to play games 48 hours apart. None of the other top five leagues in Europe have such congested schedules. In many cases, European leagues have a winter break. The rigors of this crowded portion of the season will test Slot's mettle.

2. Squad Rotation

Chelsea have managed to maintain two separate XIs this season. The primary XI features in the Premier League, and the secondary XI has been deployed in cup competitions. This has not been out of necessity, because of suspension or injury, but has been by design. The level of rotation Chelsea have employed is a competitive advantage. In the busy holiday period, Maresca has the privilege of selecting from a group of more than twenty players who have been getting regular game time. The Club's top scorer this season, Christopher Nkunku, has technically played in fifteen of Chelsea's sixteen Premier League fixtures so far, but only two of those appearances were starts. It would not be surprising to see Nkunku start more games in the coming weeks.

3. Challenger Mentality

The best thing for Chelsea at this moment has been the fact that they have been in the chasing pack, instead of leading the pack. As Arsenal have stalled and Manchester City have withered, Chelsea have shown uncommon consistency - at least, uncommon for recent years. Chelsea have emerged as the team best placed to mount a title challenge to Liverpool. The young Blues squad, assembled with billions of pounds, has the advantage of the challenger. Everyone is waiting for the top team to falter. Liverpool will wobble at some point, and with attention on the league leaders Chelsea get to focus on taking each game as it comes. Should league positions reverse, Maresca's downplaying approach will likely continue.

4. Liverpool Managers

Slot's Liverpool are not as ruthless or as devastating as Klopp's Liverpool. Had Jürgen still been at the helm this season, fans could have confidence to believe Liverpool's second Premier League title (and twentieth top flight title) would be coming their way. As it is, Enzo Maresca and this Chelsea team have every reason to believe the title is up for grabs. Slot is not Klopp, and doesn't carry the same imposing reputation.

5. European Competition

Both Liverpool and Chelsea are flying in European competition this season. Aside from the relative strength of each team's potential opposition, Chelsea's participation in Europe's third tier presents a competitive advantage. The Conference League only has six games in the league phase, while the Champions League has eight. Two fewer fixtures gives Maresca's squad more time to recover. In addition, Conference League games are played on Thursdays. This pushes Chelsea's league games to Sunday or Monday. Chances are Chelsea will play more of their games after Liverpool on any given weekend. If Liverpool drop points on a Saturday, Chelsea will have more motivation to deliver the three points.

Title Favorites

Winning the Premier League is not easy. The likes of Ferguson, Guardiola, and Mourinho have made it look easy over the years, but getting over the finish line in first place is no mean feat. Just ask Steven Gerrard or Harry Kane - two of the leagues legends who never won the title, but came agonizingly close. What wins titles is the champion mentality. At the moment, Chelsea appear to have that mindset more than Liverpool. Chelsea's squad is replete with winners. Enzo Fernandez won the World Cup with Argentina. Marc Cucurella won the Euros with Spain. Cole Palmer won accolade upon accolade after his debut season at Chelsea. And, of course, Enzo Maresca won the Championship with Leicester City. This group has the mentality to go all the way. While the betting odds have Liverpool as favorites, I wouldn't bet against Chelsea delivering a sixth Premier League title in May.