Three Games That Ended Chelsea's Title Run

December 31, 2024
by Aaron Mateer

Making bold predictions often leads to egg on your face. Less than two weeks ago, I predicted Chelsea were title favorites for a whole host of reasons. Now, on New Years Eve they sit fourth, ten points behind leaders Liverpool, who still have a game in hand. Any talk of a title at Stamford Bridge is dead.

Sports Predictions

Most mainstream sports journalists make cautious predictions based on past performance. The vast majority of writers picked Manchester City to win the league at the start of the season. After four titles in a row and six in seven years, you can hardly blame them. Very few saw this season ending with a different winner, and no one could have predicted the absolutely rotten run City were on until a much-needed win at Leicester.

As a Chelsea fan writing a Chelsea blog, I'm not trying to convince you that I'm unbiased. You should read knowing I am most certainly biased in my writing towards my team. Hopefully, if you read my last article tipping Chelsea for glory you were able to see the prediction was backed by persuasive argument, and not merely bias.

Dissecting a Fall

One point from a possible nine in December is abysmal. It's the kind of form relegation-threatened Southampton and Manchester United have. A quick turn around is needed before negativity sets in, causing more problems. If this bad run continues Chelsea will struggle to preserve their current top-four position.

After a hard-fought win against Tottenham on December 8, many (myself included) looked at Chelsea's next seven games and thought all seven were winnable without much effort. With four of those seven played, Chelsea have posted only one win against Brentford. 

To drop points once can happen in the Premier League, anyone can have a bad day at Everton; to do it three times in a row suggests something more is at play.

Draw at Everton

Playing a team coached by Sean Dyche, Chelsea could not have been surprised their opponents were organized defensively. On the back of a 0-0 draw with Arsenal, Dyche rinsed and repeated against Chelsea, making no changes to the starting XI.

Predictably, Chelsea dominated possession, but barely out-attacked Everton with five shots on target to four. However, Chelsea never realistically looked like scoring (0.77 xG). They also did not have a single one-on-one attempt while Everton did - this tells the defensive story in one stat because it suggests Everton sat back, preventing one-on-one encounters, and Everton tried to hit Chelsea on the break.

Facing a team that can dig in like Everton is the test of true champions. The teams that go on to win the title figure out a way through dogged defending. Liverpool's last ever game at Merseyside was postponed due to weather, but when the game eventually does get played it will be another litmus test of Arne Slot's ability to dig out the win.

Loss to Fulham

The last time Chelsea lost to Fulham at Stamford Bridge was in 1979. By the end of ninety minutes, it had been a fairly even matchup that could have ended in a draw with neither team feeling too dissatisfied. However, Marco Silva pushed for all three points, and the push paid off.

The Chelsea XI that started the game was arguably the strongest starting lineup Enzo Maresca has. With ten minutes left to play, Chelsea were a goal up, and you would not fault Maresca for not making more than one substitution with his preferred XI. By this point in the game, however, Marco Silva had made three of an eventual four changes. Both of Fulham's goals were scored by substitutes, including Rodrigo Muniz's 95th-minute winner.

It has been clear from early in the season that Maresca has a preferred XI for the Premier League and a secondary XI for cup competitions. Rotation, and at times wholesale rotation, has been part of the plan this season. The problem this creates is an overreliance on the "system." For example, playing a back four of Cucurella, Colwill, Adarabioyo, and Gusto may not have been the best set up against Fulham, even if the combination is our preferred starting backline for the Premier League. The hesitancy to make changes ultimately cost Chelsea this game.

Loss at Ipswich Town

This is the most troubling result of the last three. A team in the relegation zone should be easy pickings for a team with top-four aspirations. Ipswich had yet to register a home win in the Premier League this season. Chelsea should have made quick work of the Tractor Boys. Instead, Chelsea looked like they ran out of ideas.

Credit should be given to Ipswich. An inspired performance by Liam Delap drove the team to an historic win. Chelsea's backline struggled to handle Delap all game. Ipswich should expect lots of interest in Delap in the next two transfer windows.

One player taking a lot of criticism from this game is Axel Disasi. It was a mistake by Disasi that led to Omari Hutchinson's goal, and Ipswich's second. This was Disasi's fourth start out of five appearances in the Premier League this season. The other three starts were against Bournemouth, Southampton, and Everton (see above). Some credit Disasi's struggles to being started out of position in right back. It's possible, however, that Disasi is struggling for competitive playing time. Though he started all six league phase matches in the UEFA Conference League, Disasi only made six tackles total across all six games. Disasi's performance was poor against Ipswich, but in the context of how much meaningful playing time he's getting it's not suprising.

What's Next

Chelsea's first game of 2025 is away at Crystal Palace. Two weeks ago, it looked like a game Chelsea could easily win. With the fragility shown in the last three games it now looks like a game the Blues will have to fight to take something from, but the same could be said for every game. After Crystal Palace, Chelsea have Bournemouth and Wolves at home. 

A good run will be crucial leading up to a trip to the Etihad at the end of January. If Manchester City really have started to turn a corner, Chelsea will need to be at their best to get a result.

Realistically, the rest of the season is about finishing in a Champions League spot. The title is now Liverpool's to lose, that much is clear. Nottingham Forest are punching way above their weight, but it's not impossible that they finish in the top four. Arsenal will be in the conversation. Newcastle and Man City are the two teams chasing down the pack, and no doubt both teams will capitalize on further Chelsea stumbles. While the title race is over for Chelsea, the race for top four is only getting started.